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Taking Exception: Countering the National Bracket

By: Christopher Harris  (archive)
ESPN.com

A camel is a horse put together by committee.

And a bracket made of chalk is put together by a nation.

It's not surprising that the National Bracket, which combines the entries of everyone who has picked the NCAA men's basketball tournament in ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge, has mostly favorites winning every game. After all, if you pick one big upset, but your 10 friends all pick the favorite in that game, things will average out in favor of chalk. Still, because the National Bracket page has the percentage of entries that picked each team in a given game, we can get a sense of how strongly you all collectively feel about the favorites and underdogs. And then I can write an article disagreeing with you.

Let's start with the first round. The nation has picked two "upsets" (following the letter of the law, we consider an upset to be a lower-seeded team receiving more votes than a higher-seeded team): in the Midwest, where No. 10 Davidson has 51.5 percent of picks to No. 7 Gonzaga's 48.5 percent, and in the South, where No. 10 Saint Mary's has 52.5 percent of picks to No. 7 Miami's 47.5 percent. Now, I happen to agree with the Davidson pick. The Wildcats are riding a 22-game winning streak, and lost to UCLA by only 12 (a game in which they led by 18 in the first half), Duke by six and North Carolina by four. As for Saint Mary's? C'mon, people. How many of you actually have seen Saint Mary's? Not that the Gaels are bad or anything, but this feels like a big swing at the "first-round upset" pinata. They are a good defensive team, but I don't think they muster the kind of defensive pressure that has given the Hurricanes fits this year, and I don't think they have an answer for all-ACC guard Jack McClinton.

As a nation, you also seem to be fairly ambiguous about two No. 8 seeds from the Mountain West Conference: UNLV (50.7 percent to Kent State's 49.3 percent) and BYU (50.3 percent to Texas A&M's 49.7 percent). I'm with you; I look at these teams and think bleh. I've got Al Fisher and the Golden Flashes toppling the not-so-Runnin' Rebs, and I have A&M slowing down the hot-shooting, high-tempo Cougars. Interestingly, the only other first-round favorite the nation picks less than 60 percent of the time is Oklahoma over Saint Joseph's, and I'm with you here, too: While 6-foot-10 freshman forward Blake Griffin is a physical force, I watched the Sooners get crunched by double digits at Colorado and Nebraska in the past five weeks, and they didn't exactly show a ton of heart while losing by 28 to Texas in the Big 12 tourney. It's been a long time since those back-to-back-to-back wins over Arkansas, Gonzaga and West Virginia (which came after a vexing home loss to Stephen F. Austin).

In the second round, the nation has taken two chances in 16 games: in the East, where you think No. 5 Notre Dame will topple No. 4 Washington State, 58 percent to 42 percent; and in the Midwest, where you think No. 5 Clemson will take out No. 4 Vanderbilt, 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent. And you know what? I agree with both of those schools advancing to the Sweet 16. Luke Harangody will occupy a lot of WSU's defensive efforts, turning that game into a jump-shooting contest, which is a contest I think Notre Dame can win. And I actually believe Vanderbilt won't be Clemson's opponent; I have the Commodores, who struggled on the road with losses to Florida, Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama, losing to Siena in the first round. But come on, people! Only 9.9 percent of you give Davidson a chance against Georgetown? I'm picking Davidson to go to the Sweet 16. I'm not entirely sold on Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp, and I watched the Hoyas lose focus in four or five games this season when they should have put the hammer down. And I believe 65.8 percent of you took UConn over Drake because you secretly believe that A.J. Price and Hasheem Thabeet will be playing against coffee cake. But the Bulldogs are deadly shooters, and they will frustrate an immature and, let's face it, not-that-heady Huskies team. It's Drake to the Sweet 16 for me.

Here is where America gets wimpy. (Sorry, America, but just look at that National Bracket. You had it coming.) Your collective Elite Eight consists of four matchups of No. 1 seeds against No. 2 seeds. You give only two of the lower-seeded Sweet 16 schools a better than one-in-three chance of an upset: in the East, No. 2 Tennessee outpaces No. 3 Louisville 62.4 percent to 37.6 percent, and in the Midwest, No. 2 Georgetown takes out No. 3 Wisconsin 65.5 percent to 34.5 percent (in a game in which the first one to 40 points might be declared the winner by TKO). The funny thing is, I actually give Xavier a far greater chance of beating an overrated Duke squad in the West, although you have assessed Duke as a 70.6 percent-to-29.4 percent favorite. If Drew Lavender's ankle is healthy, he will be very tough for the Devils to stop, and Stanley Burrell is as good a defensive player as Duke will have seen all year.

It should go without saying that, at this point, America goes "Jay Bilas" with its bracket. (Bilas got on the air Sunday during the tournament selection show and picked all No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four, despite the fact that it has never happened.) UCLA, Memphis, North Carolina and Kansas have received the royal treatment in the aggregate bracket, with Carolina the heaviest favorite, 82 percent to 18 percent over Tennessee. (That's too high! Tennessee is good!). Memphis is the squeakiest, toppling Texas 56.2 percent to 43.8 percent. Heck, I'll go you one further, folks: I think the Longhorns will win that matchup in front of 30,000 or so loyal rooters in Houston, and they will go to the Final Four down the road in San Antonio. So far as I can tell, Memphis has three weaknesses: It sometimes struggles with outside shooting, Joey Dorsey can get into foul trouble and the Tigers are terrible free-throw shooters. I think that'll be enough.

Once we get to the national semifinals, I have a hard time disagreeing with the aggregate bracket, which has North Carolina and UCLA winning. That was my national championship ticket way back in October, and I can't ditch it now. The only difference between you and I is that you favor the Tar Heels by almost exactly a two-to-one margin over the Bruins, whereas I think a healthy Darren Collison, a recuperated Kevin Love and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will be too overwhelming a combination of explosive offensive play and will clamp down on Tyler Hansbrough. Psycho-T will get his, but in the end, Ben Howland will finally cut down the nets in his third consecutive Final Four appearance.

Don't agree? Well, it wouldn't be the first time. You can take a look at my bracket and see where I went terribly, terribly awry. And remember to create your entry for the Tournament Challenge today!

Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner across all three of those sports. He also is an inveterate college basketball nut. You can e-mail him here.



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